“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”~ John Maynard Keynes

We have a tendency to overestimate ourselves and underestimate the complexity of the world we live in. That mismatch can get us into trouble. It’s something worth remembering—especially when making important decisions.

We’re just as capable of misleading ourselves as anyone else is. We tell ourselves things that aren’t true. Much of what we believe is conjecture, assumption, or wishful thinking. Seek to understand things as they are, not as you want them to be. Look for missing pieces instead of forcing pieces to fit.

This is a mathematical universe, but we rarely know all the numbers. The more variables involved, the harder it becomes to make accurate predictions—and there are almost always more variables than we realize.

It’s important to have a vision and to believe in it, but it’s just as important to stay open to change. We shouldn’t expect a perfectly clear view. We should expect reality to expose the holes in our thinking. Reality won’t line up with us on everything.

Your beliefs will be challenged along the way—be wise enough to change when the facts change.