If you think you see a path that others don’t, you won’t know if it’s real until you test it. If you decide to test it, do so carefully. Otherwise, stick to the path you know is good.

A good way to evaluate personal risk is to think about what you would choose if you were choosing it for someone else and you were liable if it failed. Having that sense of responsibility and focusing on the risks, rather than the rewards, makes it easier to eliminate options and choose a prudent path.