When Being Right Matters Most

You don’t need to be right 100% of the time (it’s not possible anyway). Even being right 51% of the time isn’t the right way to think about it. Imagine you’re playing Poker and you win 51% of the time. But when you win, you win an average of $20, and when you lose, you lose an average of $40. Being right 51% of the time wouldn’t be good enough in that situation.

It’s the relative consequences of your decisions that matter. Being right about the most consequential things is more important than how frequently you’re right.