We underestimate how easy it is to be wrong. Just when we think we’ve made an accurate projection about how things will turn out, life throws us a curveball.
Making projections about the future is important, but we shouldn’t get too comfortable with those projections. Our batting averages aren’t that great.
Our batting averages are low because there’s an information gap—we simply don’t know enough and some of those things are unknowable. But we can improve our batting average through continuous learning and a willingness to be objective.
The information gap isn’t the only problem—we compound the problem by trying to fill the gap with whatever is available to our imagination. We tend to imagine that things will be way better or way worse than they actually will be. Those miscalculations can make things worse than simply not making a judgment until better information is available.
P.S. Thinking about this subject reminds me of a book I read recently called, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. It’s worth checking out.